“It’s still shit….” Delete your notes before you publish to tvnz.co.nz

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Here is the full text:

1 x summary of figures

RWC slowdown

But iverall, it’s still shit

INTRO: KIWI WALLETS WERE FIRMLY CLOSED IN THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, EVEN AT THE SUPERMARKET. NEW FIGURES SHOW “CORE” RETAIL SPENDING .. WHICH TAKES OUT CARS AND PETROL .. HAS HAD ITS BIGGEST THREE-MONTHLY DROP SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1995 WITH SALES DOWN FOR CLOTHES, SHOES, DEPARTMENT STORES AND SUPERMARKETS. WITH ME NOW FOR SOME ANALYSIS IS MATT NOLAN FROM INFOMETRICS..

Questions:

– biggest fall since records began…is it as dire as it looks? or just a hangover from the RWC

– economic growth at the end of last year was weak DESPITE the boost from RWC…we now don’t have that boost – could it be worse…or negative starting this year?

– what’s it going to take to get people spending? would an OCR cut do anything to help?

– are any sectors really benefiting?

– the retailers that are doing better – is that through their own clever endeavour – or just in lucky sectors?

TALENT SAYS:

End of Cup spending

In the March quarter, the volume of core (nonautomotive) retail sales fell by 2.5% from December (seasonally adjusted). However, sales in the September and December quarters had been temporarily pushed up by the Rugby World Cup. After accounting for this, the

data shows that overall retail sales have been picking up at a moderate pace during the past year. But with unemployment elevated, we expect retail spending to rise only slowly during the rest of 2012.

Supermarket spending weakened significantly in the March quarter, with the volume of sales down 7.4% from December. Although a decrease following the Rugby World Cup was expected, this drop took sales volumes to their lowest level since March 2009.

The end of the RWC also took the wind out of growth in a number of other retail industries. In the March quarter sales volumes fell sizably for accommodation (down 5.0%), clothing and footwear retailing (down 1.5%), and department stores (down 1.9%).

Encouragingly however, the volume of durable good sales did pick up further in the March quarter. A lift in motor vehicle sales pushed durable good sales volumes up 2.5%, to sit 8.2% above their March 2010 level.

Durable good sales are still 11% below their March 2007 peak, so once households become more secure about their financial situation, there is considerable scope for a lift in durable good spending by consumers.

However, we do not expect a sizable lift in durable good, or general retailing, during the remainder of 2012.

Falling commodity prices and weak employment growth will limit income gains for New Zealand consumers in the coming months. With the European debt crisis continuing to bubble on, households will also remain unwilling to borrow – even in the face of record low

interest rates.

BACKGROUND:

http://tvnz.co.nz/business-news/retail-sales-down-kiwis-get-thrifty-4886323

Supermarkets, hotels and motels and petrol companies are suffering a nasty post-Rugby World Cup hangover, with sales volumes down in the March quarter.

The same sectors got a boost from the rugby tournament in the last two quarters of last year.

Statistics NZ figures out today show sales volumes in core retail sectors, excluding cars and fuel, were down 2.5% in the March quarter- the largest seasonally adjusted fall in the series since it began in 1995.

Including vehicles and fuel, volumes were down 1.5%.

“The industries that led this drop are the same ones whose sales were boosted during the Cup – supermarkets, accommodation, and fuel,” Statistics NZ industry and labour statistics manager Blair Cardno said.

“Although sales volumes have fallen, they are still above their pre-Cup levels.”

When the effects of price changes are included, the value of core retail sales fell 2% to $13.3 billion.

The value of total retail sales fell 0.8 percent to $17.4 billion.

In the March 2012 quarter, seasonally adjusted sales values fell 1.2% in the North Island (where all eight of the Rugby World Cup knockout games were played in the previous quarter).

South Island sales values rose slightly (up 0.3%).

More up to date monthly figures on electronic cards out last week showed consumers spent 0.6% more on credit and debit cards in April than in March.

David Cunliffe statement today:

A record fall in core retail sales is an ominous warning that a double dip recession could be on the cards, Labour’s Economic Development spokesperson David Cunliffe says.

Core retails sales volumes were down 2.5 per cent in the March 2012 quarter, the largest since records began in 1995. Supermarket sales fell 7.4 per cent, also the largest on record.

“For years we have been promised an ‘aggressive recovery’ is just around the corner.

“But it’s a corner that never comes. National’s so-called ‘brighter future’ is fast slipping into the never-never.

“Today’s Department of Statistics data shows the biggest drop in both retail trade figures and supermarket sales since records began 17 years ago,” David Cunliffe said.

“New Zealanders are not spending because they can’t afford to. It’s not hard to see why – real incomes are going backwards and unemployment is back up to 6.7 per cent.

“A zero budget couldn’t come at a worse time for the real economy. Zero budgets are what you get when the economy is failing.

A zero budget will make zero contribution to reviving this failing economy; it will drive zero new growth, zero new jobs and zero hope,” said David Cunliffe.

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